Economists are expressing increased optimism regarding the outlook for the US economy, marking a significant shift from previous assessments. Decreased Likelihood of Recession According to a recent Bloomberg survey, economists have downgraded the probability of a recession occurring this year to approximately 40% – the lowest level recorded since January 2022. This newfound optimism stems...
Nobel economist Paul Krugman challenges the prevailing notion of a looming economic crisis, suggesting that Americans may be overestimating the severity of inflation. Krugman coined the term “vibecession” to describe the pervasive negative sentiment surrounding the economy, particularly evident during a period of heightened inflation in 2022. However, he argues that assessing the economy’s health...
The Dartmouth men’s basketball team achieved a historic milestone on March 5, not only securing a victory against Harvard but also voting to join the service employees union SEIU Local 560. This landmark decision marked the first time in US college sports history that athletes voted to join a labor union. A Long Road to...
Despite facing soaring inflation, rising interest rates, and economic uncertainties, American consumers have played a pivotal role in preventing a recession by maintaining robust spending habits. However, experts caution that the resilience of consumers may soon reach its limits, signaling potential economic challenges ahead. Defying Economic Pressures Consumer spending serves as a vital component of...
China’s real estate market, in a prolonged state of decline for several years, may be on the brink of further deterioration as construction enters a deeper correction phase, according to insights from Capital Economics. Sustained Slump in Construction Despite noticeable declines in property sales and construction starts, sustained construction activity has persisted due to increased...
Amidst the turmoil in Chinese stock markets, Beijing’s latest efforts to stabilize the situation by cracking down on private sector activities appear to be a familiar, yet concerning, move. Measures to Prop Up Markets The recent measures, including restrictions on short-selling and the restraint of quant trading funds, aim to bolster confidence in China and...
China’s strategic pivot towards bolstering its exports is anticipated to ignite geopolitical tensions and potentially trigger a new trade war in the coming year, according to Leland Miller, CEO of China Beige Book. Transitioning Growth Model As China endeavors to transition to a more sustainable growth model, it is intensifying its emphasis on manufacturing. This...
China’s long-standing one-child policy has led to significant demographic challenges for its economy, particularly within the education sector, where millions of teachers could face unemployment in the coming years. Surplus of Teachers Projected According to a recent report from the South China Morning Post, Chinese schools have traditionally accommodated large class sizes, with up to...
China’s major state-owned banks are taking precautionary measures amid escalating sanctions against Russia by halting payments from sanctioned Russian financial institutions, according to reports. Compliance Measures Reports suggest that three of China’s prominent banks — the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank, and Bank of China — have suspended transactions with sanctioned...
After a six-month hiatus, China has resumed publishing its youth unemployment rate, shedding light on the nation’s labor market dynamics. However, the latest figures come with a significant methodological change, making direct comparisons challenging. Revised Methodology The new youth unemployment rate, released for December, excludes full-time students from the calculation. While this adjustment yields a...
